Multiples in Fire Safety: What the Ranges Mean and What Moves You Up Them

The RangeThe published ranges describe a spread, not a going rate

Fire safety businesses in this market are typically discussed at around 0.8x to 1.5x recurring fee income, or roughly 3x to 7x adjusted EBITDA, with contract-rich operators at the upper end and project-led installers at the lower. Those are observations of a market rather than a promise about any particular business, and the spread between the ends of that range is the whole point: it is a multiple of three, applied to the same profit.

It is worth being precise about what the multiple applies to, because that is where most confusion sits. Adjusted EBITDA means earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, with the owner's remuneration normalised to what a manager would cost, and genuine one-off items removed. An owner paying themselves well below market rate is inflating the figure the multiple is applied to, and a buyer will correct it.

Two businesses with the same adjusted EBITDA can therefore sit three points apart on the multiple, which is a far larger difference than anything either of them will achieve by growing revenue in the year before a sale. That is the practical argument for treating the multiple as the thing to work on.

The LadderFour factors decide where in the range a business sits

Recurring share is the first and the heaviest. The proportion of revenue arriving under signed service and inspection agreements, as against installation and reactive work, does more to set the multiple than any other single factor, because it determines how much of next year's income a buyer can model rather than hope for.

Certification is the second. BAFE scheme registration with a scope covering design, installation, commissioning and maintenance, supported by properly qualified nominated individuals and a clean audit history, is capability an acquirer cannot assemble quickly and therefore pays for. Since the SP203-1 Level 3 qualification requirement took full effect on 1 November 2025, that capability has become measurably scarcer across the market.

Contract length and renewal history is the third: agreement terms, notice periods, and what proportion of the base actually renewed in each of the last three years. Customer concentration is the fourth, and it works only downwards. A book where one client is a fifth of contracted income is discounted regardless of how good that client is, because the buyer has to model the renewal it does not control.

Behind all four sits a condition that is rarely stated: whether the numbers can be evidenced. A claimed renewal rate that cannot be reconciled to the service records is treated as an estimate, and estimates get discounted. The same figure supported by three years of visit data and signed agreements is treated as a fact. In this sector the distance between a claim and a fact is worth real money on the multiple.

The BuyerThe same business is worth different money to different buyers

The range also reflects who is at the table. A backed platform buying regional density values contracted income and certification scope, and will pay towards the top for both. An adjacent compliance or facilities group values the ability to service clients it already has, and prices route overlap. A similar-sized trade buyer values geography and engineers. A management team values continuity and is usually the most constrained on funding.

That is why a single approach tells you so little. One offer is a data point with nothing to compare it against, and in this sector the gap between the highest and lowest serious offer on the same business is regularly wide enough to change what an owner does next. Competitive tension is not a negotiating trick; it is simply what reveals the range rather than one point inside it.

It is worth saying what does not move the multiple much. A strong final year of installation revenue, a new depot, or one large project all look like progress and change the figure far less than owners expect, because none of them alters what a buyer can model for next year.

The practical conclusion is unromantic. Work on the four factors, because they move the multiple and they are yours to move. Then let more than one buyer look at the result at the same time, because that is what decides which end of the range applies on the day.

Competitive tension is not a negotiating trick; it is simply what reveals the range rather than one point inside it.